
The Truth is yet to be proven
Businessworld, 21 August, 2000
Six months ago, the frequently asked
question in the dotcom circuit was: "Whats your revenue model?" Have you
noticed the subtle shift now that no one asks about just revenue models but also "How
much money do you have left in the bank?" Hang on to it for as long as you can, seems
to be the message.
Bali has got the right ingredients to be a
dotcom entrepreneur. Few start-ups have the kind of exposure he got at Bhrigus
outfit in Singapore. Fewer still do the kind of fact finding that is required to analyze
an opportunity objectively. A right mix of enthusiasm, bright ideas, exposure to existing
dotcom businesses and a strong financial backing would seem to be all you need to convert
a greasy garage operation to a dot corp. You must know your customer and focus on adding
economic value; create something that has a real need beyond as Markandey puts it,
"curiosity value".
To be able to add economic value, the Net
has to do what airplanes are doing. Air travel supplements rail travel where the distances
are short enough for man to endure inside a steel cage! One may travel by train in India
or even across Europe, depending upon time, cost and convenience. Chugging on a train
across the Atlantic is neither feasible nor desirable even if such a link were available.
The Net supplements and adds value to many things that we do. It does not have to replace
all of them. We still use cars, dont we? So while one may shop for books and music
online, sacrificing the touch-feel-hear experience, one may not like to do away with the
morning newspaper altogether. Similarly, education is a collaborative experience, not just
teacher to student. So the Net can supplement teaching by keeping class schedules ready,
tracking scores, providing additional study material for student or even video aided
classroom broadcasts. But will it kill schools? Unlikely. The computer is yet to develop
an interface as friendly as that of a teacher to a 12 year old!
What most would-be Net millionaires miss,
is that the Internet does not expand the size of the wallet exponentially. An online
business has to rely upon weaning away customers from the brick and mortar stores. I
dont buy more books simply because an online bookstore is around. Newspapers should
attempt to provide research results on the net, supplement news articles with more photos,
not just provide "full versions" or articles on the web. If I am reading about
the Fiji-crisis, the online edition should provide me with a history of all previous
events in Fiji, a background on the Fijian ethnic society and maybe the Presidents
biography. Over time, broadband will allow me to view footage of the crisis getting
dissolved. Markendeys observation about media on the Net ignores these new
dimensions. Publishers experimenting with media reports over the Web need not wait for the
infrastructure to be up-graded they can do it with the future in view and they will
be ready when the bandwidth explosion takes place.
The Net today is not a good multimedia
medium. If your site offers audiovisual and most of your visitors are on a modem
connection, are you really serving them? Many dotcoms focus on inundating their customers
with options and technology that only end up confusing them. For building a web store, the
product mix, character of the store, back-end logistics are as important as branding. If
you are in the information commerce space, provide something that has clear demonstrable
value. If you are in the online community space, focus on the needs of target members.
A B2C venture targeting a consumer base of
3 million users in India cant expect to recover its investment overnight. Only 3% of
users have ever transacted online. The cost of brand building is huge for online business
since they assume and take on the responsibility of making the world their marketplace,
which itself is a fallacy. There are not many dotcoms that have truly global appeal.
Customer acquisition costs in India could be as low as $2 and go up to $10. For this
reason, focus on niches in important. The Gartner-Group estimates the average Indian
online consumer will spend $30 annually by 2003. In contrast, key consumers (niche) will
average $1,400 annually.
In the real world, one bookstore would do
well and encourage others to set up a bookstore maybe further downtown or in another city.
This strategy served well in dispersing the service geographically. Book-stores in the
same block would compete on the breadth of their offering, pricing and ambience. These
differentiators exist online as well. Quality of service, availability of books and
shipment cost all important factors for an online buyer. Firstandsecond.com for
example, uses a unique model to deliver more than 1 million books to Indian buyers at a
price lower than the landed cost of a book from Amazon.com, thus differentiating itself
and providing economic value.
The innate desire to get there before
someone else does drives the job market. Sky-high pay packets are thudding back to earth.
South China Morning Posts Internet arm SCMP.com cut 18 jobs in June. Along with a
sound business plan, you also need a sound financial position. Otherwise, be ready to
merge or get acquired. Which may not be a bad thing at all and the grapevine says this is
precisely what many dotcoms are aspiring for to invest Rs 2 crore and be bought for
Rs 200 crore! Bali analyse your Net biz ideas critically. Allow them to mature. Cut
through the hysteria and see whether your offering promotes loyalty. Whether you see a use
for it three years hence. Are you able to offer a new product or differentiate from
existing ones? The importance of differentiation is more so in the world since the
barriers of time and distance that hold in the Old Economy seem to melt in the digital
economy. Do not succumb to technological distractions. Ignore speculation based
stockmarket booms. Is Barnes & Noble better positioned to enter new markets given its
warehousing capability and brick and mortar stores coupled with an online one? Or is
Amazon.com better positioned sans its brick and mortar baggage? They are competing
business but not competing business models, each has its advantages and both can be
winners if they provide value to the customer. Any business must have a clear strategy and
a viable customer base. Getting there before others do has been typical of the huge bucks
spent on brand awareness by web businesses, without paying heed to costs. In India itself,
we have seen new magazines e.g., Outlook being launched and carving a niche for
themselves. New TV companies like CNBC India entering the market space have garnered a
significant share of the pie. None of this happened overnight. Dotcoms today are
positioning themselves for the time when the Internet becomes as commonplace as the
telephone or TV. The digital economy moves fast, so new websites cannot afford to wait for
five years to garner market share. But using sensible business practice is much better
than squandering on false premises and running it aground. For such businesses, a space
exists and the future is bright. Get ready for the world after B2B B2C C2C
C2B. Focus on the P-to-P (path-to-profitability) and R-to-R (road to
rationalisation) and thereby success. |